Just a few more days and we can finally start mocking our rookie drafts more accurately. We’ll also gain valuable insight into certain veterans and how they fit into their franchise’s plans. Below are a few of those players and the Tweets that highlighted them.
On the Road Again
Trade terms agreement:
🏈Steelers get WR Allen Robinson and a 7th-round pick (No. 251).
🏈Rams receive 7th-round pick (No. 234).
Rams pay $10.25 million of Robinson’s salary; Steelers pay remaining $5 million. Robinson is scheduled to be in Pittsburgh for a physical Wednesday.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) April 18, 2023
After a lackluster 2022 season with the Rams, Allen Robinson has been traded to the Steelers for practically nothing. This follows the 2021 season, which was also a disappointment when he was moved from Chicago to Los Angeles. It’s been three seasons since Robinson was a fantasy or dynasty contributor with his name and resume now responsible for any value he has left.
Entering his age-30 season this year, we may be at the end of Robinson’s career. Nothing has topped his sophomore season on his first team (Jacksonville) when he totaled 1,400 yards and 14 touchdowns. It was always thought his lack of opportunity prevented him from another 1,000-yard season as a Jaguar. He rebounded in Chicago with two, 1,000-yard seasons before the massive drop-off as seen in his dynasty value above. He doesn’t have a lot of time left to curb that trend.
Dynasty Impact: Typically when a player is moved in the NFL, it’s because one team values him over the other and will give him more opportunities. That might not be the case for Robinson. Despite the disastrous 2022 season as a Ram, there currently isn’t much competition for looks behind target-hog Cooper Kupp. In Pittsburgh, he could be fifth option after the two starting receivers (George Pickens and Diontae Johnson) followed by tight end Pat Freiermuth and running back Najee Harris – the four of them accounted for 382 targets last season, which doesn’t leave a lot of room for Robinson.
Currently, Robinson is worth a mid-fourth-round pick in upcoming rookie drafts according to our DLF Trade Analyzer. It’s close to a throwaway pick so if you have a gut feeling about Robinson, go nuts. However, remember how much the Steelers traded away to the Rams (moving down 17 spots in the seventh round) and how much Pittsburgh will pay Robinson (roughly $5 million of his $15 million salary). Don’t pay more than the Steelers did.
Independent Trey
Sources: The #49ers have received inquiries from several teams looking into a potential trade for former No. 3 pick QB Trey Lance. The conversations have been the result of SF fielding the calls, not making them, with teams aware that Brock Purdy is likely the future starter. pic.twitter.com/ddOZjZq5Xn
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) April 19, 2023
After a quiet off-season when it came to Trey Lance rumors, his name went to the top of the list after the Ian Rappaport Tweet above. It was always going to be one of the bigger off-season storylines – would the 49ers keep Brock Purdy as the starter despite a devastating injury, or would they let Lance have another shot at proving he was worth the third overall pick in 2021? For now, it looks like the 49ers will go with the former.
They also signed veteran Sam Darnold for a backup role which leaves little room for two more quarterbacks and enough time has elapsed from Purdy’s injury for the 49ers to feel more confident in him – that leaves Lance with the shortest straw. The timing of the news also can’t be coincidental as we’re less than a week away from the NFL Draft where draft picks will constantly be up for discussion and if the 49ers plan on receiving any in return for Lance, they better start those negotiations now.
Dynasty Impact: For Purdy, this is a vote of confidence from the 49ers. He wasn’t considered an elite fantasy talent but it will further solidify his grip on the starting job. For Lance, a potential trade could take his dynasty value in either direction. At the moment, it’s been slowly declining thanks to the crickets coming out of San Francisco about his role. It could dip even further depending on where he ultimately lands. For example, if he went to Houston, it’s hard to see his value increasing due to the lack of talent surrounding him there.
On the other hand, an opportunity is an opportunity and if he were to be traded, presumably it would be to a team that has plans for him to be their starter. Whether it’s Houston or the Raiders (which would be hilarious) or another team, if they give up halfway decent assets to acquire him, he’ll get the opportunity to start and that would immediately boost his value. Time may be running out on Lance’s dynasty value bottoming out.
Bad Beat
Reason for Jameson Williams and Stanley Berryhill getting six games and not an indefinite suspension: They placed bet on non-NFL games from an NFL team facility. That is not allowed.
Indefinite suspension is for betting on NFL games. https://t.co/p9AQ4QVROR
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) April 21, 2023
Jameson Williams was on his way to becoming an extremely valuable dynasty asset. He was drafted 12th overall in 2021 despite tearing his ACL just months before. It meant missing most of his rookie season but his team, the Lions, were fine with that after he torched college defenders for 1,500-plus yards and 15 touchdowns. When he finally did appear on an NFL field, he only got his dynasty managers more excited after turning the one reception he had all season into a 41-yard touchdown. He headed into 2023 completely healthy and ready to take on a role in the Lions’ offense and worthy of a top-12 pick – then the suspension news broke.
Dynasty Impact: The news of Williams’ suspension and missed time will surely deflate his once-ascending ADP.
He’s caught exactly one pass, yet is currently a top-25 dynasty receiver. Suspension or not, that might be too high. Williams won’t have to face any obvious competition from this year’s rookie receivers but still, check out the DLF rankings to see who is behind him. I would rather have the more certain production of Amari Cooper or Mike Williams or even the soon-to-return Calvin Ridley.
This isn’t to say Williams won’t be good. However, between the missed rookie season and now a suspension, he has an uphill battle just to get back to sea level. If someone wants to trade for him and involve a first-round rookie pick and then some, I’d do it.
Ken is on Twitter at DLF_KenK
