The DLF IDP team got together for a pre-draft IDP-only rookie mock to determine how we feel about these guys before we know where they land. Joining me were Adam Tzikas, Justin Taylor, Marcus Erickson, John DiBari, Jason King, Brandon Haye, and Eric Flynn.

Our two-round mock was based on a 12-team league, using five positions comprising DT, DE, LB, S, and CB. We assumed a tackle-heavy system and DT-premium scoring.

Round 1

1.01 – Will Anderson Jr., DE Alabama

Tzikas: Anderson has been a dominant force on a great Alabama line and is one of the pure blue-chip prospects of this draft. He has an excellent get-off and top-tier closing speed, making him deadly in the pass rush. He needs some work around his pass rush plan and hand technique, but these are easily coachable downsides.

1.02 – Jalen Carter, DT Georgia

Taylor: If you are in a league that starts a DT and has premium scoring, Carter is worth the selection here. If he can turn into an Aaron Donald-type DT, you hit a home run here.

1.03 – Drew Sanders, LB Arkansas

Erickson: I really like the versatility that Sanders has. Before transferring to Arkansas, he was primarily an edge player at Alabama. He showed he can be more than just an edge player after his season with the Razorbacks.

1.04 – Jack Campbell, LB Iowa

DiBari: There’s a decent chance he’s the leading tackler among rookies. He has tons of upside and is also gaining steam in NFL circles. I don’t remember him being talked about as a first-round pick early in this process, but I’ve heard those rumblings recently.

1.05 – Tyree Wilson, DE Texas Tech

King: Wilson will grab your eye if you like your edges to look like Myles Garrett from a height-weight and arm-length perspective. He has the versatility to line up inside an offensive tackle but is agile enough to drop into coverage. Power translates from college to the pro level, and Wilson moves linemen backward.

1.06 – Isaiah Foskey, DE Notre Dame

Haye: With many of the main guys I like off the board, I went with a productive player in Isaiah Foskey. He had double-digit sacks in his last two years. While he sometimes can run himself out of the play, he has great speed off the edge and uses his hands well.

1.07 – Myles Murphy, DE Clemson

Abbey: Murphy needs to refine his technique as a pass rusher, adding additional moves to his pass rush arsenal. However, his size, power, and athleticism are incredible, and he’s been highly productive for Clemson. His performance at his pro day was phenomenal, further intensifying the hype surrounding the 21-year-old. His potential was too great to pass up with the seventh pick.

1.08 – Nolan Smith, DE Georgia

Flynn: Some are skeptical of Smith’s size, but the guy is a super athlete who has been strong in the run game, can change tack quickly to be a relentless pursuer of the ball carrier, and has the scope to improve his pass rush in an NFL system. Players who are on the field all three downs have more opportunities to get you those fantasy points, and Smith qualifies as one of those guys.

1.09 – Trenton Simpson, LB Clemson

Abbey: Simpson is not a complete prospect, but no rookie linebacker can claim that feat. His ability to see significant snaps early in his career may depend on his progression in pass coverage. Still, his range and explosiveness make him an appealing IDP prospect, and his proficiency as a pass rusher may make him valuable in best ball formats.

1.10 – Lukas Van Ness, DE Iowa

King: As I mentioned with Wilson, power translates, and “the Lukas Van Ness Monster” can convert speed to power off the edge. He’s another long-armed, big edge at 6’5”, 275 lbs, with inside-outside versatility. He has lots of growing to do as a pass rush technician, but he’ll get on the field early, a la George Karlaftis.

1.11 – Bryan Bresee, DT Clemson

Abbey: Bresee’s college production has been slightly underwhelming, but we must remember that he has overcome extreme adversity in recent years. His blend of power and athleticism is impressive, and his ability to line up in multiple positions on the defensive front will appeal to NFL GMs. His injury history is a concern, but if he can stay healthy and land with a team needing a penetrating three-technique, he could make waves. He was an easy choice with the 11^th pick. I love his potential.

1.12 – Calijah Kancey, DT Pittsburgh

Abbey: Kancey is only 281 lbs and at 6’1”, and I’m concerned he may not have the frame to add additional weight. Therefore, he may not be a good fit for every defensive scheme. However, he has the first step, quickness, and college production to suggest he can make an impact on passing downs.

Round 2

2.01 – Brian Branch, S Alabama

Abbey: Branch is my favorite safety in the class. He has experience playing in multiple positions in the secondary and has proven to be adept at defending both the run and pass. That’s rare. He’s a sure tackler, and his ability to diagnose plays should help him get on the field early in his career. I’m not put off by the lack of big plays for Alabama.

2.02 – BJ Ojulari, DE LSU

Abbey: I regretted this pick because I assumed Daiyon Henley would be there for me at 2.04. Lesson learned! Fortunately, Ojulari is a good consolation prize. He’s an explosive pass rusher with great athleticism, bend, and balance. I have questions about his ability to be an asset in run defense, but I have reservations about every player remaining on the draft board.

2.03 – Daiyan Henley, LB Washington

King: Henley has a fan club, and I like him, but he has limitations as a lateral mover, and it was no surprise he passed on running the short shuttle and three-cone drills at both the combine and Washington State’s pro day. He’s fast, though, and might carve out an early role if his pass coverage ability translates from college to the NFL.

2.04 – Keion White, DE Georgia

Abbey: At 6’5” and 286 lb, White often looks like a man among boys. He has the power you expect for his size, and while he didn’t line up inside the offensive tackles often for Georgia, his stature suggests he could do so if required. He needs some refinement as a pass rusher, as you would expect from a guy who has only been playing the position since 2019, but I’m encouraged by his progress.

2.05 – Derick Hall, DE Auburn

Flynn: A productive pass rusher in the SEC, Hall will offer immediate pass rush depth but is also a strong run defender and tested well at the NFL Scouting Combine. I’m happy to take a chance on this day two project.

2.06 – Will McDonald IV, DE Iowa

Abbey: McDonald is close in my rankings to my earlier pick, B.J. Ojulari, and they share many of the same strengths and weaknesses. The Iowa product displays a sudden burst off the line and is relentless in pursuit. His ability to play all three downs may depend on his ability to improve in run defense, but at 6’4”, he has the frame to add additional weight, which would help in that sense.

2.07 – Felix Anudike-Uzomah, DE Kansas

Haye: At 2.07, I took another player that is a pure pass rusher. Felix Anudike-Uzomah had 19.5 sacks and eight forced fumbles in his last two years. At this point in the draft, I will gladly take the sacks and tackles for losses he can produce. He has a non-stop motor and is talented in performing a variety of pass-rushing moves.

2.08 – Nick Herbig, LB Wisconsin

King: Herbig is an off-ball projection as he’s converting from college edge rusher. From a size perspective (6 feet-2 inches, 240 pounds), he should hold up well as a tackler. His explosion and agility testing numbers are just OK, though, so this is just a swing that he lands with a team that needs size at linebacker.

2.09 – Antonio Johnson, S Texas A&M

DiBari: Johnson should be a strong safety at the NFL level. He could see lofty tackle totals right out of the gate, depending on his landing spot. Hopefully, he lands with a team that wants to use him in the box more than in coverage.

2.10 – Dorian Williams, LB Tulane

Erickson: Sitting at the back end of round two, this is good value for Williams. He is another versatile player who showed he can do a little of everything in college. He is a hard hitter and solid in coverage. He is built more like a safety, so where he gets drafted will be intriguing.

2.11 – Sydney Brown, S Illinois

Taylor: Brown is a playmaking safety who I think is overlooked in this draft. It is not a deep position this year, and I think Brown is one of the best in the draft. He could drop to the third round, but depending on his landing spot, he could be an immediate starter and impact IDP player.

2.12 – Andre Carter II, DE Army

Tzikas: Carter is a project but has incredible size for an edge defender. He needs a lot of work but has the perfect frame to become something great. It’s all about the upside with the last pick of the draft.

Ten days! We are down to just ten days until the 2023 NFL Draft. Each year, the closer we draw to the draft, the more information we collectively learn. This means the mock drafts that were once a futile exercise begin to look more and more realistic. One of my favorite NFL Draft analysts, Dane Brugler, released a full seven-round NFL mock draft. These are always my favorite because of the depth. Of course, the players near the top of the draft will also claim early picks in rookie drafts but the later-round selections can be crucial dynasty assets as well.

This week’s 1QB dynasty rookie mock is based solely on what Dane projected in his full NFL mock draft. We’ll assume he nailed both the landing spots and draft capital that are so crucial in ultimately determining a player’s dynasty value. I strongly recommend you seek out this full mock draft to read, along with Dane’s 2023 NFL Draft Guide, deservedly nicknamed “The Beast.”

ROUND ONE:

1.01 Bijan Robinson, RB WAS (Round 1, Pick 16)

There’s no surprise here with the current dynasty RB1, based on our latest startup ADP, coming off the board with the top spot. Many have suggested that despite Robinson’s obvious talent, it has been difficult to project an ideal landing spot for him in the top-half of the draft. Here, he’d supplant Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson rather easily.

1.02 Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR SEA (1.20)

In this scenario, Smith-Njigba is the first receiver off the board, landing in Seattle. This would make for a crowded depth chart, alongside DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, especially for a team that loves to run the ball. This would be a slight ding to JSN’s value, but not enough to push him out of the second spot.

1.03 Jahmyr Gibbs, RB ARI (2.34)

The Alabama product Gibbs is nearly a lock to be the RB2 in both the NFL as well as rookie drafts. In Arizona, he’d have the chance to play with veteran James Conner for one year as he gets the chance to prove he can be more than a change-of-pace back in the league.

1.04 Jordan Addison, WR NYG (1.25)

The Giants have been busy adding and re-signing wide receivers all offseason, most of them undersized just like Addison. That makes this a surprising selection but Addison is also more talented than most, or all, of the Giants current pass-catchers. He’d have the chance to start from day one.

1.05 Zach Charbonnet, RB CIN (2.60)

This Bengals pick late in the second round suggests that the team is ready to move on from veteran Joe Mixon, who has had multiple off-field incidents this offseason. If Mixon is cut, Charbonnet would be locked in as a top-five rookie pick with the chance to go even higher. He’d also be the clear favorite to earn Cincinnati’s starting job for this season.

1.06 Zay Flowers, WR BAL (1.22)

Flowers has been consistently rising in mock draft and dynasty ADP throughout the pre-draft process. In fact, he’s even gotten some recent buzz as the possible first wideout drafted. Here, he is second off the board but lands in a questionable spot. The Ravens have had a tumultuous offseason, headlined by Lamar Jackson’s contract status. The Ravens recently added veteran Odell Beckham, but that should not stop them from bringing in more receiver help.

1.07 Quentin Johnston, WR HOU (2.33)

While Flowers has been a steady riser, Johnston has done the opposite. Once considered in the running to be the dynasty rookie WR1, Johnston’s game, include his effort, has been highly criticized for the past couple of months. He falls out of the first round but does land in Houston, paired with a new quarterback and in line to serve as the Texans WR1 from the jump.

1.08 Tank Bigsby, RB LAR (3.77)

For weeks, it has been known that draft capital and landing spot would ultimately dictate the order of the tier three running backs. In this mock draft, Bigsby comes out as the winner, as the Rams’ third-rounder. Los Angeles and Sean McVay made it clear last season that they were ready to move on without Cam Akers. Ultimately, they were stuck together and Akers regained the starting gig. Bigsby would have a strong chance to take that job from Akers, and maybe even push him out of town for good.

1.09 Anthony Richardson, QB IND (1.04)

This rookie class lacks wide receiver depth. The NFL has relatively few ideal running back landing spots. This combination is all it takes to push quarterbacks up the board, even in a 1QB dynasty league. Richardson is the third quarterback off the board but landing with the Colts and new head coach Shane Steichen, along with his overall upside, push him to the dynasty rookie QB1 spot.

1.10 Israel Abanikanda, RB PHI (3.94)

Every year, a third-round running back ascends into the first round of rookie drafts thanks to a juicy landing spot. In most cases, this “reach” does not work out for the dynasty managers, but it continues to happen. Abanikanda has been viewed as a riser for the past few weeks and this would cap it off. Although he’d face competition for touches in Philly from Rashaad Penny and Kenneth Gainwell, Abanikanda has the talent to earn the starting role and the skill set to push all others to the sideline.

1.11 Cedric Tillman, WR JAX (2.59)

While his college teammate Jalin Hyatt has been heavily scrutinized recently, Tillman has become a favorite “sleeper.” If he is drafted in the second round to a solid landing spot, he’d lose that sleeper tag and instead be in consideration for a late-first round spot. The Jags already have Christian Kirk and Calvin Ridley, along with Zay Jones, but a rookie receiver tied to Trevor Lawrence for the next four years is a wise investment.

1.12 Bryce Young, QB CAR (1.01)

As I already mentioned, the quarterbacks are coming off the board earlier than typical years for multiple reasons. Young is the top pick to the Carolina Panthers and presumably the Week One starter. The only real concern about the former Heisman winner is his size. His athleticism and decision-making give him top-five upside in dynasty leagues.

ROUND TWO:

2.01 CJ Stroud, QB HOU (1.02)

Although Stroud has earned a reputation as the safest quarterback prospect in the class, most agree he lacks the upside of both Young and Richardson. Still, he’d have a chance to overtake Davis Mills as the Texans starter could already be considered a dynasty QB1.

2.02 Josh Downs, WR NE (2.46)

Although the draft capital would be solid for Downs, the landing spot is a disappointment, and would hurt Downs’ value. A low-volume pass offense led by an embattled a low-ceiling quarterback are not enticing reasons to chase Downs in rookie drafts.

2.03 Roschon Johnson, RB TB (3.82)

It is unclear how confident the Buccaneers are in second-year running back Rachaad White. Regardless of how much they like White, this team needs backfield help. Johnson is used to sharing the backfield after playing behind Robinson for years at the University of Texas. From day one, Johnson could play a larger role for the Bucs than he did in college.

2.04 Dalton Kincaid, TE LAC (1.21)

The tight end class is talented and deep. Like the crowded tier three of ball carriers, this group’s eventual rank will be determined by landing spot. Kincaid hasn’t been able to work out for much of the pre-draft process but still showed enough to become the first tight end selected, landing with the Chargers. As one of the most-talented offenses in the league, this is one dynasty managers should target, helping Kincaid’s value even more.

2.05 Michael Mayer, TE DAL (1.26)

The next tight end off the board is Mayer, also a first-rounder. With Dalton Schultz gone from Dallas, Maybe would have a chance to make an immediate impact on the Cowboys’ offense.

2.06 Jalin Hyatt, WR NO (2.40)

Before we even know the details of the NFL Draft, many dynasty managers are doubting the one-trick-pony of the wide receiver class, Hyatt. A speedster who always found himself running open in the Tennessee offense, there are real concerns that Hyatt’s game won’t translate to Sundays.

2.07 Tyler Scott, WR KC (2.63)

Based on most mock drafts, including this one, the NFL and scouts are much higher on Scott than the dynasty community. Not only is he a likely Day Two pick, but here he lands with the wide receiver-needy Chiefs, boosting his dynasty value by over a round.

2.08 Tyjae Spears, RB HOU (3.73)

Tulane running back Spears has become a dynasty favorite after impressing at both the Senior Bowl and the NFL Combine, but his value could take a hit in this scenario. While he does sneak into the end of Day Two, Spears would join Dameon Pierce and Devin Singletary in a suddenly-crowded Houston backfield. There have also been some recent concerns about Spears’ past knee injuries. That could cause a drop both in the NFL Draft as well as dynasty rookie drafts.

2.09 Marvin Mims, WR IND (3.79)

Mims is another receiver who has been steadily gaining dynasty value throughout a seemingly successful pre-draft process. The Colts have plenty of needs with little depth behind Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce.

2.10 Zach Evans, RB CAR (4.132)

The rebuilding Panthers have veteran Miles Sanders on a nice contract, luring him away from the Eagles, but there are still needs in the Panthers’ backfield. Taking a shot on the former top-ranked back in his recruiting class, Evans, would be a solid investment. With Sanders, as well as Chuba Hubbard, this landing spot and Day Three draft capital would hurt Evans’ dynasty value in the short-term.

2.11 Kendre Miller, RB NYG (3.89)

Miller suffered a knee injury last in the college season, making his status to begin his NFL career a bit murky. He’d serve as the backup behind Saquon Barkley, who is expected to play under the Franchise Tag this season. A promising rookie season from Miller could be enough to convince the Giants not to reward Barkley with a long-term extension.

2.12 Devon Achane, RB DEN (3.67)

It wasn’t long ago that Achane was being viewed as a possible first-round pick in rookie drafts. While that could still happen, it wouldn’t in this situation. Achane falls to the third-round and ends up a Bronco, joining Javonte Williams and Samaje Perine. This type of selection could also be another bad sign for Williams’ status to begin the 2023 season.

We’ll be back next week with another Monday Mock!

With a new month, NFL Draft month, I should say, we have updated dynasty startup ADP coming your way. The full data will be available on the site soon for both 1QB and superflex leagues, but I wanted to offer an early look at how the early rounds are looking as we near the keynote offseason event later this month.

ROUND ONE:

1.01 Justin Jefferson, WR MIN

1.02 Ja’Marr Chase, WR CIN

1.03 AJ Brown, WR PHI

1.04 Bijan Robinson, RB ROOKIE

1.05 CeeDee Lamb, WR DAL

1.06 Jonathan Taylor, RB IND

1.07 Christian McCaffrey, RB SF

1.08 Breece Hall, RB NYJ

1.09 Garrett Wilson, WR NYJ

1.10 Jaylen Waddle, WR MIA

1.11 Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR DET

1.12 Chris Olave, WR NO

There have been 21 occasions of a unanimous 1.01 pick in DLF dynasty ADP history and Justin Jefferson now has three straight as he was the top overall pick in all six of our April mock drafts. He joins Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, and Odell Beckham as players to accomplish this in multiple months. While Jefferson is the obvious top pick, I am surprised at the gap between him and Chase, who was the second pick in each draft this month.

With less than three weeks remaining, we still don’t have a good idea of where the rookie running back Robinson will land. He does have a new high ADP, moving up one spot since last month. Robinson is just the fifth rookie back to reach an ADP of 1.04 or higher and he’s the first to do it before being drafted into the league.

Taylor continues to hold down the RB2 spot but the gap is narrowing as both McCaffrey and Hall are close behind, forming the second tier of dynasty backs. Speaking of McCaffrey, it is somewhat surprising to still see him among the top-twelve players given his age, as he turns 27 in June. Since 2014, only four 27-year-old backs have held a first-round ADP. This suggests CMC is due for a value drop in the coming months.

The round ends with a string of four straight wide receivers who are all 24 years old or younger. Wilson, Waddle, St. Brown, and Olave have combined for 29 WR1 games over the past two seasons, with the first three producing a top-twelve performance 30% of their games. Olave totaled three WR1 games as a rookie, 20% of his total games, but is also the youngest and just got a quarterback upgrade as the Saints added Derek Carr.

ROUND TWO:

2.01 Tee Higgins, WR CIN

2.02 Patrick Mahomes, QB KC

2.03 Tyreek Hill, WR MIA

2.04 Kenneth Walker, RB SEA

2.05 Drake London, WR ATL

2.06 DK Metcalf, WR SEA

2.07 Saquon Barkley, RB NYG

2.08 Travis Kelce, TE KC

2.09 Kyle Pitts, TE ATL

2.10 Josh Allen, QB BUF

2.11 DeVonta Smith, WR PHI

2.12 Cooper Kupp, WR LAR

The first player off the board in the second round is the Bengals WR2, Higgins. Although the player is obviously valuable, I believe Higgins is somewhat overrated at this ADP. In his three seasons, Higgins has produced a total of ten WR1 games, along with that same number of WR2 performances. That leaves 57% of his games as the WR25 or worse, including 13 games with under ten fantasy points.

The second round includes a pair of quarterbacks and tight ends. After months as the reigning dynasty QB1, Allen has now fallen behind Mahomes as the top option. The real surprise comes at tight end. For the first time in nearly two years, Kelce is the dynasty TE1, barely overtaking Pitts.

ROUND THREE:

3.01 Travis Etienne, RB JAX

3.02 Austin Ekeler, RB LAC

3.03 Stefon Diggs, WR BUF

3.04 Davante Adams, WR LV

3.05 Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR ROOKIE

3.06 Mark Andrews, TE BAL

3.07 Jalen Hurts, QB PHI

3.08 Jahmyr Gibbs, RB ROOKIE

3.09 Josh Jacobs, RB LV

3.10 DJ Moore, WR CHI

3.11 Deebo Samuel, WR SF

3.12 Rhamondre Stevenson, RB NE

If you are looking for a reliable veteran, you’ll love your third-round targets. The reigning top-scoring running back, Ekeler, comes in at the 3.02 spot. Ekeler’s dynasty value and ADP have been very volatile over the past few months, from nearly cracking the first round as the 2022 season neared an end to now falling outside of the top twenty-five players. That likely has a lot to do with Ekeler’s ongoing contract talks with the Chargers and his trade demand. Los Angeles is the ideal spot for Ekeler to continue to produce and a trade to nearly any other team would harm his value and production.

Two of the best wideouts of the past decade come off the board next with Diggs and Adams. This is Diggs’ lowest ADP since February of last year as he’s fallen down to Adams, who has regularly been drafted in Round Three since the middle of last season. Adams will be playing with a new quarterback in 2023 after the Raiders signed veteran Jimmy Garoppolo to replace Carr. The team also shipped out Darren Waller while adding Jakobi Meyers. As always, Adams will see as many targets as he can handle.

Round Three also includes the next two rookies, Smith-Njigba and Gibbs. The pair are seemingly locked in as the 1.02 and 1.03 spots in rookie drafts with Smith-Njigba projected as the rookie WR1 and Gibbs in a tier of his own as the RB2. Once JSN has a home, it is easy to project him moving up from his current WR17 ADP. It won’t be a surprise if he cracks the top twelve before the season begins.

ROUND FOUR:

4.01 Najee Harris, RB PIT

4.02 Michael Pittman, WR IND

4.03 Jameson Williams, WR DET

4.04 Christian Watson, WR GB

4.05 Treylon Burks, WR TEN

4.06 Chris Godwin, WR TB

4.07 Nick Chubb, RB CLE

4.08 TJ Hockenson, TE MIN

4.09 Joe Burrow, QB CIN

4.10 Justin Herbert, QB LAC

4.11 D’Andre Swift, RB DET

4.12 Jordan Addison, WR ROOKIE

If the third round was all about safety and reliability, Round Four brings the upside…and risk. There are four first or second-year wideouts. Each of the three sophomores brings exciting breakout potential, but are not without their own concerns. Each of Williams, Watson, and Burks missed time due to injury as a rookie. This is also the highest ADP ever for both Williams and Watson.

This is the highest Hockenson has been drafted in over a year and a half. After a hot streak to end the season following his trade to the Vikings, Hockenson is being valued as the consensus TE4 in dynasty leagues.

There were already reasons to be concerned about Lions running back Swift entering the offseason, but those worries were ramped up after the team signed veteran David Montgomery. Swift’s April ADP of 47 marks the first time in his career that he’s fallen outside of the top-forty players.

ROUND FIVE:

5.01 Javonte Williams, RB DEN

5.02 George Kittle, TE SF

5.03 Quentin Johnston, WR ROOKIE

5.04 Lamar Jackson, QB BAL

5.05 Tony Pollard, RB DAL

5.06 Jerry Jeudy, WR DEN

5.07 Justin Fields, QB CHI

5.08 Zach Charbonnet, RB ROOKIE

5.09 Derrick Henry, RB TEN

5.10 George Pickens, WR PIT

5.11 Terry McLaurin, WR WAS

5.12 Brandon Aiyuk, WR SF

Denver’s Williams is another running back whose dynasty value is in flux. After missing much of the 2022 season with an ACL injury, the assumption has been that Williams would be back and good to go for the upcoming season. Lately, there have been whispers suggesting that won’t be the case. Add in that Denver also signed underrated veteran Samaje Perine and Williams’ value is fading fast. This is the first time Williams has fallen outside of the top four rounds this calendar year.

The fifth round includes a pair of 49ers pass catchers with Kittle at 5.02 and Aiyuk ending the round. With Garoppolo gone, the Niners will turn to Brock Purdy…or Trey Lance…or maybe even Sam Darnold. Actually, no one is quite sure who will be under center in San Francisco.

The veteran back Henry checks in at 57 overall, his lowest ADP since December of 2018. The offseason always offers a buying window on aging players and now might be the time to pounce on the value Henry is offering at this ADP.

We’ll be back next week with another Monday Mock!