Rookie Pick Value Archives - Dynasty League Football https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/tag/rookie-pick-value/ Dynasty Fantasy Football Mon, 10 Apr 2023 22:36:43 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/cropped-android-chrome-512x512-1-32x32.png Rookie Pick Value Archives - Dynasty League Football https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/tag/rookie-pick-value/ 32 32 Rookie Draft Pick Value Rundown: Who Should You Expect to Select? https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2023/03/30/rookie-draft-pick-value-rundown-who-should-you-expect-to-select/ https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2023/03/30/rookie-draft-pick-value-rundown-who-should-you-expect-to-select/#comments Thu, 30 Mar 2023 23:00:16 +0000 https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/?p=1440846

Welcome to the Rookie Draft Pick Value Rundown. Over the past few months, the staff at DLF have completed a series of articles exploring the value of past, present and future rookie draft picks. The series is broken down into smaller pick ranges to give you a better understanding of what you can expect in specific portions of the draft. For these sections, we used DLF’s Superflex ADP.

This article is going to recap that series and look at some of the key points we learned. It will also give us a chance to analyze any trends or serious dips in talent level from one draft slot to the next.

2023 Early 1st (Pick 1.01 to 1.04)

Historically the early first round is the “can’t miss” section of the draft and this year is no different. The value of the players available in the early first round is likely to hold for multiple seasons even if they disappoint or suffer an injury as a rookie. For example, we’ve seen recent rookies such as Clyde Edwards-Helaire hold their value right up to the point they went off a cliff.

The early first tier can be broken down into two sub-sections this year, Bijan Robinson and the quarterbacks. We will start with Robinson. If you own the 1.01 congratulations, you have one of the most valuable rookie picks in recent memory. Robinson is seen as the consensus 1.01 in all formats and is a generational talent. He is the easy pick for any team that traded for the first overall pick and has a reasonable chance at contending in 2023.

Table Description automatically generated

Courtesy of DLF’s March 2023 Superflex Rookie ADP.

The question then becomes: what if you earned the first overall pick and are a rebuilding team with multiple holes to fill? A generational rookie running back while sexy is not likely to significantly help a team with little to no talent. In this situation, the manager at 1.01 is best served to trade away the first overall pick for a treasure trove of assets.

There are two ways that managers in this situation should go about trading the pick. If you are a team desperately in need of a starting quarterback, the gameplan should be to trade back to no lower than the 1.04. This will allow you to pick up additional assets while still leaving you in a prime position to draft a potentially elite quarterback. If quarterback is not your prime concern, then you can trade back as far as the 1.10, that’s the point in rookie drafts where you will still be able to get the last of the elite running backs or wide receivers (Quentin Johnston, Jordan Addison or Zach Charbonnet) but if you trade back any further, you risk being caught on the wrong side of a massive tier drop.

As mentioned above, the remainder of the early first round is made up of the three potentially elite quarterbacks; CJ Stroud, Bryce Young and Anthony Richardson. If you are in need of the quarterback of the future, then this is the area you need to be drafting, once Richardson goes off the board it is a tier drop to Will Levis and then a Grand Canyon-level drop off to the remaining quarterbacks in this class.

If you pick between 1.02 and 1.04 and are not one of the quarterback-needy teams, you are in a great position to follow the Chicago Bears 'strategy and sell off your pick to the most desperate quarterback-needy team. Again, if you choose to trade down from these picks to avoid drafting a quarterback, do not trade past the 1.10 or you risk losing out on an elite-level talent.

2023 Mid 1st (Pick 1.05 to 1.08)

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Past/Present/Future Rookie Pick Value: 2023 Late 4th https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2023/03/04/past-present-future-rookie-pick-value-2023-late-4th/ https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2023/03/04/past-present-future-rookie-pick-value-2023-late-4th/#respond Sat, 04 Mar 2023 13:00:28 +0000 https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/?p=1439907

We are embarking on the final leg of the rookie draft and there’s still some talent left on the board. This year’s class of rookies is deeper and could allow us to find some gems in the back half of the draft. Considering this class is deep at running back and tight end, the odds are good there could be a prospect in the fourth round who you could draft.

Also, since the running back position is saturated with value, we could see some wide receivers slip in rookie drafts. This is the year to wait it out to the fourth round to see who slides in the draft.

HISTORICAL CONSENSUS PICKS

2022

2021

2020

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Past/Present/Future Rookie Pick Value: 2023 Mid 4th https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2023/02/23/past-present-future-rookie-pick-value-2023-mid-4th/ https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2023/02/23/past-present-future-rookie-pick-value-2023-mid-4th/#respond Thu, 02 Mar 2023 13:00:32 +0000 https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/?p=1439792

Rookie draft season is fast approaching! Everyone wants in on this exciting 2023 rookie class, whether your team is contending or rebuilding.

In this series, the DLF team will look at the rookie draft in groups of four to give a comprehensive view of those picks. We’ll do this by analyzing consensus picks of the past, the potential options for this year, and what the picks are worth on the trade market. For this series, we’ll be focusing on superflex formats. Let’s jump into it!

Historical Consensus Picks

2022

2021

2020

Most of these players never accomplished anything in the NFL, but there are a few bright spots. Of course, Pacheco is the highest-valued player on this list, as he’s the only one who carries any real dynasty value right now. I still recommend selling him, but he’s worth around the 2.08 in superflex leagues, according to the DLF Trade Analyzer.

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Past/Present/Future Rookie Pick Value: 2023 Early 4th https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2023/02/28/past-present-future-rookie-pick-value-2023-early-4th/ https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2023/02/28/past-present-future-rookie-pick-value-2023-early-4th/#comments Tue, 28 Feb 2023 13:00:25 +0000 https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/?p=1439838

The 2023 class is good. Better than good. Even more enticing, it’s not a fish-in-barrel class, so others can make mistakes confidently while we laugh.

It is also a top-heavy class.

The wide receiver position has two or three prospects clearly above the rest, depending on your point of view, ad a solid second tier we’ll know more about after the draft. The running back position also has some very good options outside the current – or soon-to-see if you’re not up to date – RB1 Bijan Robinson.

In other words, 2023 is an ideal class to trade up in.

Sleepers, as I’ve told you before, don’t exist and suck when they are drafted higher. However, there are consistent areas we can look for value, find common edges and (perhaps) take advantage of mistakes by the broader consensus. 2023 is the type of draft class you want to make those bets on.

Until August, we don’t know exactly who will be drafted where in most rookie drafts. However, working with the current DLF ADP, what can we say about the early fourth round this year?

HISTORICAL CONSENSUS PICKS

2022

2021

2020

I’ve been collecting DLF startup ADP for a while. I’ve found some noticeable trends that are actionable or at least a decent guide to expectation.

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Past/Present/Future Rookie Pick Value: 2023 Late 3rd https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2023/02/19/past-present-future-rookie-pick-value-2023-late-3rd/ https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2023/02/19/past-present-future-rookie-pick-value-2023-late-3rd/#respond Sun, 19 Feb 2023 17:00:49 +0000 https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/?p=1439743

After everything is said and done, the 2023 rookie draft class might be one of the most historic in all of dynasty fantasy football. The biggest narrative going into the off-season is that the running back class is loaded with talent and the wide receiver group is one of the worst we’ve seen in a while. From a macro perspective, we might catch ourselves in a landscape where we can catch wide receivers at a value and talented running back prospects leak into the third round of rookie drafts.

Another thing we have to note is that we are looking at a very deep tight end class this year. With the position being very volatile in fantasy on a week-to-week basis, there’s a good chance we find good tight end prospects in the back half of rookie drafts.

When we try to predict what’s going to be there in the third round of rookie drafts this year, it’s easy to see just by looking at the player pool that there are going to be some interesting names who fall in the latter portion of drafts.

HISTORICAL CONSENSUS PICKS

2022

2021

2020

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Past/Present/Future Rookie Pick Value: 2023 Mid 3rd https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2023/02/16/past-present-future-rookie-pick-value-2023-mid-3rd/ https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2023/02/16/past-present-future-rookie-pick-value-2023-mid-3rd/#respond Thu, 16 Feb 2023 17:00:45 +0000 https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/?p=1439677

Rookie draft season is fast approaching! Everyone wants in on this exciting 2023 rookie class, whether your team is contending or rebuilding.

In this series, the DLF team will look at the rookie draft in groups of four to give a comprehensive view of those picks. We’ll do this by analyzing consensus picks of the past, the potential options for this year, and what the picks are worth on the trade market. For this series, we’ll be focusing on superflex formats. Let’s jump into it!

Historical Consensus Picks

2022

2021

2020

Well, I honestly have little nice to say about this group of players. The entire 2020 group carries essentially no dynasty value whatsoever. Evans, McFarland, and Eason haven’t done anything in their NFL careers, while Duvernay is currently the WR99 and buried on the Ravens’ run-first offense. Additionally, the 2021 group is almost as weak, as Wallace and Eskridge have barely played, and Trask has zero career NFL snaps.

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Past/Present/Future Rookie Pick Value: 2023 Early 3rd https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2023/02/14/past-present-future-rookie-pick-value-2023-early-3rd/ https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2023/02/14/past-present-future-rookie-pick-value-2023-early-3rd/#respond Tue, 14 Feb 2023 21:00:02 +0000 https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/?p=1439654

Rookie drafts are on the horizon. I think it is fair to say the first two rounds are typically locked in with players. The final rounds are dart throws chosen for potential upside.

In this series, the Dynasty League Football team will be taking a look at four pick sections of a dynasty rookie draft to give a comprehensive view of those picks by analyzing consensus picks of the past, the potential options for this year, and what the picks are worth on the trade market. For this series, we’ll be focusing on superflex formats.

Historical Consensus Early Third-Round Selections

2020

2021

2022

When attacking the later rounds in rookie drafts, the aforementioned upside needs to be addressed. Looking at the previous picks, it seems wide receivers drafted to high-powered offenses or running backs who are thought to take the RB1 job (e.g., Tyler Allgeier) or to compete for the RB1 job (e.g., Brian Robinson) were targeted. Similar reasoning may be attributed to the quarterbacks.

2023 Potential Options

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Past/Present/Future Rookie Pick Value: 2023 Late 2nd https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2023/02/13/past-present-future-rookie-pick-value-2023-late-2nd/ https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2023/02/13/past-present-future-rookie-pick-value-2023-late-2nd/#respond Mon, 13 Feb 2023 09:00:07 +0000 https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/?p=1439618

Rookie draft season is fast approaching! Everyone wants in on this exciting 2023 rookie class, whether your team is contending or rebuilding.

In this series, the DLF team will look at the rookie draft in groups of four to give a comprehensive view of those picks. We’ll do this by analyzing consensus picks of the past, the potential options for this year, and what the picks are worth on the trade market. For this series, we’ll be focusing on superflex formats. Let’s jump into it!

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Past/Present/Future Rookie Pick Value: 2023 Mid 2nd https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2023/02/09/past-present-future-rookie-pick-value-2023-mid-2nd/ https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2023/02/09/past-present-future-rookie-pick-value-2023-mid-2nd/#respond Thu, 09 Feb 2023 17:00:33 +0000 https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/?p=1439559

It’s almost that time of year again: rookie drafts are on the horizon. Rebuilders are full of glee as they hoard their picks, while contenders are scheming how they can pry some of those picks away, and dynasty players everywhere are champing at the bit to draft their favorite prospect.

In this series, the Dynasty League Football team will be taking a look at four pick sections of a dynasty rookie draft to give a comprehensive view of those picks by analyzing consensus picks of the past, the potential options for this year, and what the picks are worth on the trade market. For this series, we’ll be focusing on superflex formats.

HISTORICAL CONSENSUS 5-8 PICKS

2022

2021

2020

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Past/Present/Future Rookie Pick Value: 2023 Early 2nd https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2023/02/07/past-present-future-rookie-pick-value-2023-early-2nd/ https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2023/02/07/past-present-future-rookie-pick-value-2023-early-2nd/#comments Tue, 07 Feb 2023 13:00:04 +0000 https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/?p=1439325

Rookie draft season is fast approaching! Everyone wants in on this exciting 2023 rookie class, whether your team is contending or rebuilding.

In this series, the DLF team will look at the rookie draft in groups of four to give a comprehensive view of those picks. We’ll do this by analyzing consensus picks of the past, the potential options for this year, and what the picks are worth on the trade market. For this series, we’ll be focusing on superflex formats. Let’s jump into it!

Historical Consensus Picks 13-16

2022

2021

2020

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