Go Raiders!
I gave up a boatload down the stretch for Adams last year in a push for the playoffs. If I were rebuilding, he would be on the way out the door. But with J. Jefferson, Diontae Johnson, Brandon Aiyuk, Gabe Davis, and Keenan Allen on my roster, I’m taking the optimistic view that my WR’s can lead me to victory.
If I wanted to move off Adams but still contend would Marquis Brown or Chris Godwin plus be good targets, or should I just ride out Adams for the next 2-3 years?
Note that last season, 2021, was the first season in 5 where Adams played all 16 games. Averaging the receptions, yardage, and TD totals for the last 5 seasons might give a somewhat decent estimation of Adams’ production this season had he stayed in Green Bay (101-1239-12) because it would take into account his potential for missing a game or two. Using that as a baseline then for 2022 and fairly conservatively estimating he is able to only achieve 80% of that baseline with the Raiders projects to 81 receptions and 991 receiving yards and 9 TDs. A stat line like this would put him in high WR2 range, on the strength of and provided he is able to get to 9 TDs. Any less on the TD front and he is mid-range WR2 at best (PROVIDED my assumptions – using last 5 seasons, 80% factor in Vegas vs Green Bay – are reasonable).
So, I would say I think for Adams for 2022 we are most likely looking at a mid-range WR2, quite a drop from bonafide top-5 or top-3 like he has been the last five seasons. If I owned him, which I don’t, I might be looking to cash in on his name and recent production and using his reunion with Carr to deflect any concern of a drop from playing with Rodgers. Use it as an opportunity to get younger at WR, in my opinion.
