My take on Kamara is that I think his drop in ranking, while certainly impacted by the looming suspension, is primarily due to his relative ineffectiveness last season. He had the most rushing attempts of any season in his career but he had the lowest YpA in his career. Put another way, he rushed approximately 33% more times in ’21 than in ’20 yet did not gain as many yards in ’21 as he did in ’20. Not to mention his receiving work, but I will. He had nearly half of the receptions in ’21 than he had in his previous 4 seasons, averaging nearly two less receptions per game. Why? In addition, with a fairly equal to previous seasons number of touches, he averaged over a yard and a half less per touch! That’s not good. I would attribute some of that to maybe his age (although he’s not THAT old).
I think what we saw last season was the Drew Brees effect. It was Kamara’s first season of his career playing without Drew Brees at QB. Also, Sean Payton left. If you ask me, Payton wanted to get out now with an eye toward finding something else next season because he didn’t want to stick around in NO without a top-flight QB. He saw what happened last season and got out. I think it’s time for us to realize the realities and that the season-after-season top-level fantasy production out of New Orleans might be over.
Oh, and by the way, I would say we need to also re-adjust our thinking around Michael Thomas. Not only will he be coming off of injury but he too has lost Drew Brees as his QB. I don’t think it’s possible to underestimate Brees’ impact on the Saints offense nor the departure of Payton leading the offense.
I would be a seller of this asset and that’s what makes a market. Mr. “Mad Money” understands markets very well. However, in regards to the trades listed, I even though I would be selling Kamara, I don’t particularly like any of those listed, although Nos. 2 and 4 are possibilities, with some tweaking. I think I would find myself a Saints fan and try and get more.
Hey Jeff, I certainly understand your points. As someone who owns no stock, and never has, in Kamara, I would say I’m not biased in either direction but for me, the sum of the negatives outweigh the sum of the positives in this case. And if to explain last season’s production drop as more a function of all the things that did happen, has any of that markedly improved this off-season? I, personally, would rather sell his name now than hang on and hope.
I certainly think we can both be right about this. If he can, at no worse, produce as expected through the first month or so, he should be able to hold his value and then might be ticketed for a flip. However, the one thing that throws a wrench into that thinking is we don’t know how long of a suspension he will get and when it would actually be served, especially if he appeals to get it reduced. So maybe one keeps him for awhile, sees what he does, then looks for a good opportunity to sell him, my thinking selling during this season would be best. He will be 28 by the start of ’23 and who knows what will happen by then.
I appreciate the discussion as well; it’s an opportunity to learn what others may be thinking and gives a fuller picture.
