Can someone explain why toggling to superflex would yield any difference in value when comparing these two? Doesn’t make sense how it’s close in 1-QB, and then it flips and the other is way with a drastic difference in value in 2-QB. Seems like an issue with the trade analyzer, unless there is something im overlooking
I agree here with the poll results and analysis as well. I think Brown will settle in as a high WR2, possibly a low WR1 (although not quite a top 6 kinda guy) in Arizona IF things remain the same; that is if Murray is still the QB and Kingsbury with his “Air Raid” offense is still the HC in a few years. I would easily take that fairly known, expected quantity in Brown’s production vs the potentially higher ceiling of Williams. At the very least, I would say it will take at least two years, possibly more, for Williams to truly hit his ceiling, which, for argument’s sake, I would say is expected to be higher than Brown’s ceiling. What we know right now is that he (Williams) has his injury to overcome, he has an average-at-best QB to overcome, then he also has the “Lions’ Mystique” to overcome although playing on a team that projects to be playing from behind quite a bit can yield a ton of fantasy points.
In addition, take any rolling 5-year, 7, 8, 10-year period and look at the WRs drafted in the 1st round. At best, over any one of those periods, you have a 50-50 hit rate. Now, that doesn’t mean this year will play out like that; it could be ALL SIX of the 1st Round WRs have very productive careers. However, history shows that 50-50 hit rate while right now we know Brown has proven himself, over his first three seasons, to be a successful 1st round-drafted WR. I mean, hell, let’s look directly at Brown’s own class, 2019. Only two WRs were drafted in the 1st round, Marquise Brown at #25 and N’Keal Harry at #32. There’s your 50% hit rate right there. I choose to take the known quantity, a two to three-year vet over the hopes and dreams of that “shiny new car”, the rookie WR.
