I completely agree with the take on Brown as evidenced in the “Would You Rather…” article; I completely disagree with the take on Robinson for reasons I’ll explain; and I completely have no opinion on Pittman. Great article, by the way.
Now, for Robinson…I think he should be ranked higher than he currently is at, #39 – 40. I think he was unmotivated (playing on the Bears, as well as being a Bears’ fan, will do that to a person). It wasn’t a good situation, those things can happen. Now, as the WR2 in LA (as far as we know right now), he should have an awful lot of opportunities to produce and I think he can and will. Simply adding up what Robert Woods and Odell Beckham produced last season gives a baseline of 72-861-9. I would think Robinson should be able to achieve at least that. That puts him right around the mid-WR3 range. Now factor in that Beckham’s Rams production was hampered a bit by having to learn a new offense in mid-season (Robinson has to learn a new offense as well BUT has the benefit of a full off-season) and Robinson’s potential production rises from the Woods-Beckham sum. Then, factor in the definite, without-a-doubt it will happen regression of Copper Kupp from his career year and you can add even more to Robinson’s potential output. Funny thing, Robinson is actually two months YOUNGER than Kupp so, in my opinion, everything people will discuss about Robinson’s age should absolutely apply to Kupp as well.
Also, consider it’s not like Kupp had been stringing together 110-1400-10 seasons for years; his best year before 2021 was his 94-1161-10 in 2019. I’ll take that; a great season, no doubt, but I think much more realistic than his 145-1947-16 from last year. So… that Kupp’s excess production from par will go somewhere and I think Robinson can and will be a large beneficiary of that. I could see him finishing with a line of 90-1200-7 which, according to my calculations, would put him, at worst, in the low WR2 range or, thinking a bit more conservatively, a top-25 to top-30 WR, at least a tier above where he is currently ranked. I think Robinson has a lot of upside this season and will be motivated playing for a much better franchise as well as playing with a much better QB. Just that can take a player quite far.
I agree on A Rob. It’s a bit of an unfair example because A Rob is not Randy Moss and I don’t expect A Rob to repeat what Moss did when he switched from Oakland to NE, however, both scenarios are very similar. Oakland went 2-14 and was an awful team. Randy had the worst season of his career (at age 29) and was revitalized upon coming to NE and getting on a winning team with a great QB at age 30. It’s almost the exact same scenario, I just don’t expect those results from A Rob.
Good comparison to the Moss situation. Obviously, Robinson is not Moss but the situations are indeed similar. Moss’s stats in 2006, his last in Oakland: 42-553-3. Robinson’s stats last season: 38-410-1. And, Robinson has had good seasons before, with three top-flight (and 1 decent) fantasy seasons so it’s not like he can’t do it or it would be out of character. Maybe he doesn’t reach the numbers I threw out above but average his four best seasons: 2015, ’16, ’19’ and ’20, when he played in all 16 games and you get 88-1170-8. That’s not too far off what I suggested above.
It’s the thoughts above that have allowed me to acquire Arob so cheaply this off season 😀 #blessed
