Why would you rank Aaron Rodger’s 2015 season relative to 2019? Everyone has scored more in more recent seasons. It seems disingenuous to rank him in 2019 for how he performed in 2015.
I see a worse year than the previous two seasons, but his pending demise is greatly exaggerated. Off-season and off field news does not affect fantasy points scored. I actually think it’s a bad time to trade him based on the exact reasons you list. Once the season starts, he will be worth much more to contenders. If you can get an inferior team to trade you a 23 1st, have at it. But everyone in my leagues with inferior teams are guarding those like gold.
For me, a way to determine a WR’s effectiveness is to simply count how many weeks he has either scored a touchdown or accumulated over 100 total yards. Doing so, relative to my league’s scoring system, produces enough points with the receptions added for me to quickly determine that player had an “effective” week meaning if I lost, I didn’t lose because of him. He could have done better to help me out but he had a “pretty decent week”. When I look at Williams’ weekly production in ’21, I count 8 such weeks giving him an “effective rating” of 50%. Just a quick guide to tell me if I need to investigate further or just move on. Unfortunately for Williams’ owners last season, he had four, or half, of those weeks within the first 5 weeks of the season. Ideally, you would like to see them spread out more over the season but it is what it is.
For example, Deebo Samuel has 14 of 16 such weeks. Massive production but definitely not sustainable. D.J. Moore had 7 of 17 such games. How do we feel about Moore? Cee Dee Lamb had 8 of 16 such games, yet most people’s feelings about Lamb are fairly positive, as evidenced by his #3 WR dynasty ranking. And Lamb, over Weeks 15 through 17, fantasy playoffs weeks for most, finished really crappy.
So, I’m not defending Williams at all. I don’t have any stock in him; as a matter of fact, I own Keenan Allen and so whenever Williams is scoring TDs that means Allen is not and I’m disappointed. I’m just pointing a different way of looking at a player.
Couldn’t agree more about Mike Williams. Been waiting for a season like his last for years but he’s been a disappointment his whole career. Finally has a good season and all the sudden he’s in the top 15.
I mildly agree on Rodgers. He’s turning into this weird version of himself and I think he needs to take that and go somewhere. But other than that, I think we might see a lower tier caliber Rodgers this year. I think the team is depleted after Adams left, and without him Rodgers might implode. But I said mildly because betting against one of the goats is a hard bet to make.
I disagree on Miles. Yes if you asked me “who’s a player that’s burned you the most in recent history?” Miles would be toward the top of the list. But I give him this year before I’m completely out on him. My two “last chance” guys are Sanders and CEH. I think Sanders has the talent (5.5 YPC, good hands, can work all 3 downs), but his volume was abysmal. Last year was an anomalous stat line for an RB. No Howard, Scott shouldn’t be as much a factor, their team looks quite complete on paper, if they function like the team they appear to be sanders can have a great season this year. I like him to bounce back, but this is my last year to give him a chance to.
