I’m always VERY skeptical of statistics represented as percentages. In regards to the “Optimism” section and Tua’s “Completion Percentage on Throws of 20+ Air Yards”, well, I could throw twice, complete one and I would be at the top of that list. I would suggest whomever uses such statistics that they utilize a “minimum attempts” criteria so as to filter out outliers. Just as an example… Say Tua only had 17 attempts (completing 7 for his completion percentage) but someone else had 38 attempts of 20+ air yards and finished with a completion percentage of 37%, meaning they completed 14 passes. I would rather have the lower percentaged QB as they throw deeper more often but percentage-wise complete a tad bit less.
Again, I don’t have access to those numbers but I would be curious to find out.
Oh, and by the way, I am way down on Hill this season. Definitely count me on the Pessimism side.
