Welcome to the Regression Trend Report, where we look at player regression trends on a week-by-week basis.
Throughout the season, I’ll collect the weekly data and post it on a sheet here.
Enough preamble, nerd up!
Last year
Last year I created a tool to look for those regression candidates. It was successful and surprisingly resulted in a signal for players who are likely to fall back from their previous week’s performance.
Despite capturing a group of five to eight players on average, the players “due” to fall back the next week did so: 80% of the time at wide receiver, 70% of the time at tight end, and nearly 60% of the time at running back
Running back was the lowest hit group in players falling in production. This makes sense since a player’s average volume takes time to catch up when an injury occurs.
The players “due” to bounce back did so: 52% of the time at running back, 40% of the time at wide receiver, and 51% at tight end.
Week One: Bounce Back
There are a lot of things we could highlight but I’m just going to highlight the things I think may be the biggest questions or most unnoticed by the crowd.
