Lineup Advice, Team Tracking & Strategy: Playoffs Edition – Week 15

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Week 15

For most all leagues, the playoffs now begin!

I hope the dynasty gods shined their blessed light upon you this fantasy season and that you find yourself in the playoffs as we near a close-out of 2022. If there's one thing I've learned in 20 years of the dynasty format (and 25 years in fantasy) it's that reaching the playoffs is never ordained and, despite the paper-strength of a team, there still take a healthy supply of good luck and good fortune to move into the post-season. Sometimes, at least, just side-stepping too much bad luck is good luck in and of itself.

Week 14 was a bit brutal in some of the bye week players, for me that most impacted receivers such as Terry McLaurin, Chris Olave and Christian Watson while also missing running backs Aaron Jones and Alvin Kamara. Thankfully, however, outside of one particular league, which I'll highlight below, it wasn't overly impactful. I hope the same for you.

Looking at last week's action, I had a couple of big misses in my advice but nothing which I could have avoided. Jerick McKinnon for the Chiefs finally decided to have his big day. I think we all knew it was coming but just no way to forecast when. He finished as the 6th overall best scorer in week 14 in PPR formats. Mike Williams also returned to have a big day. I typically don't like to start injury-returning players unless I have no better options. Thankfully I started him in two leagues, deciding to sit Zonovan Knight in both cases. Knight actually had another decent day.

All-in-all, it was a good week of advice and week 15 is looking interesting with some of the matchups. Specifically, Mahomes against a sturdy defensive secondary of Houston. Seattle hosting San Francisco. The 49ers have a top defense which could be an issue for Geno Smith, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Kenneth Walker, if he plays. The Dolphins travel to Buffalo and a mid-December game in Buffalo always carries some degree of weather risk. As of right now, we're looking at cold temps, a little wind and forecasted snow.

I'll be doing everything possible to give you an advantage this week so keep your questions coming. Keep them a bit shorter if you can which allows me to spend more time researching.

Good luck

Team Tracking

Going to do something a bit different this week as I sum up my regular season results. As you likely remember, I use 13 teams for my tracking including two new ones for 2022. I'm going to give a quick summary of each of these teams here so you know what I'm playing and how each performed to expectations. For quicker reference, I'm just going to use my league description so you can mostly ignore it.  Generally speaking, all my leagues are PPR and most are 1QB but I do have a few superflex teams and I'll label those (SF) specifically. Following each label I'll summarize the record through week 14.

Here are the leagues:

WCD (7-7)

This is the league which founded DLF! It is also the league where I have a COMPLETELY different focus from all other leagues. You know how when you have a lot of leagues, it's tough to root for players since a player winning a game for you in League A is beating you in League B? The fix for me was the WCD league. Starting about 10 years ago I decided to have a league where I don't care much about winning as much as I do amassing my favorite players and, especially, lots of draft picks. This means I will forego the better player so that I can maximize my favorite aspects of dynasty, those being rookie drafts and the players I like watching on Sunday. I highly recommend this augmentation to your dynasty experience, giving you one team where it's purely your favorite sandbox.

I did not make the playoffs and this team lost some of its top performers due to injury. I finished third in my division of five teams, only the top two advance.  I also hold the prospective (we use a draft lottery) 1.01 in 2023 as well as the 1.06. Going to be fun. I think this team could be a powerhouse starting next year.

Dynasty 4 (11-3)

Finished at the top of my division and will get a first round bye though I did lose Deebo Samuel, a late-season trade I made to make up for the loss of Mike Williams. Acquisition of Samuel cost me my 2023 first and second round picks. Being that they are late picks, I still like the deal.

Dynasty 6 (9-5)

Finished at the top of my division and should get a first-round playoff bye (I'm writing this on Monday so bye status could change). This has always been a strong team and I hold two first-round picks in 2023, my own and the prospective 1.04.

Dynasty 7 (8-6)

Made the playoffs but will be third in a very tough division. Lucky to still be in it following the losses of Cooper Kupp, Darnell Mooney, JK Dobbins and D'Andre Swift. Not sure I have enough to advance very far but this team made the championship game last year.

Dynasty 9 (9-5)

Made the playoffs and finished at the top of my division. This stings a bit because heading into MNF, I had also secured a bye but Marqise Brown dropped his last target and I lost by two points, also losing the "W" and the bye. This team finished 3-11 last year. Unbelievably, I lost Marquise Brown and Breece Hall and still turned this team around though I don't think it's as strong as the record to be honest.

SUL9 (10-4)

Made the playoffs and finished at the top of my division. Won the championship last year as well with this team and it's strong again. Did lose Cooper Kupp however.

SUL10 (8-6)

Made the playoffs in what is the toughest division of any of my leagues. Won the championship last year and may be on the outside looking in this year.

7RIA (SF, 10-4)

Ah yes, probably my second favorite league and the first for competition. I've never missed the playoffs. It's a 14-team league which gets its name from the fact that we have a seven round rookie draft in April (Seven Rounds In April). Yes, before the NFL Draft. This is the team I referenced recently. I will finish 10-4 on the season and NOT make the playoffs because of our playoff system which awards victory points based on weekly scores, not just W's. After losing Dak Prescott early and trading Deshaun Watson, I got beat up with injuries (Stafford, Kupp, Mooney, etc.)  starting in week nine or ten and it was a slow slide. Despite my record, my points scored are pedestrian. I still had a chance in week 14 but had to piece together a team from the waiver wire. On the positive side, this is a VERY strong team when healthy and the Watson trade has turned into the 1.01 and 2.01 and my own predicted 1.08. That's three of the top 15 picks including the 1.01.

DFFL (6-8)

Won't make the playoffs here but I didn't have my sights on that until 2023. This was a sad-shape orphan I took over last year. I was able to draft Najee Harris and Ja'Marr Chase along with Rashaad Bateman last year. This year I landed Breece Hall (1.01) and Treylon Burks (1.04) to go with Tyler Allgeier in the 2nd of the rookie draft and my late sleeper of Isiah Pacheco in the 4th. I also traded away Gabriel Davis for DeVonta Smith in a straight-up offer I couldn't refuse. It's now a great young looking team which would have performed better if not for injury and I have the projected 1.04 pick in the upcoming draft.

DLF 001 (SF, 3-11)

An orchestrated rebuild obviously not making the playoffs. Traded away Josh Allen for a huge haul of picks and players. This team still has Austin Ekeler, Miles Sanders (trade), D'Andre Swift, James Robinson (trade), Darnell Mooney, Josh Palmer (trade), Alec Pierce, Juju Smith-Schuster (trade), Michael Thomas and Jameson Williams and also projected picks 1.01, 1.02 and 1.05. Pretty excited about the future though I need quarterback help.

Safeleagues 189 (9-5)

Could be my strongest team of all but it has never won the championship. Heading to the playoffs again and just lost Deebo Samuel.

RTS SF1 (SF, 10-4)

First-year league and a strong looking team.

RTS SF2 (SF, 7-7)

Going to just miss the playoffs here but it's not a bad looking team which had some unfortunate injuries. I fully expected to reach the post-season with this squad after drafting but lost two-of-three starting running backs and had three receivers underperform: Courtland Sutton, Allen Robinson and Elijah Moore.

I finished this week 9-4, bringing my total record to 107-75. It's a solid record impacted by my rebuilding team. Ultimately, I've made two of my teams strategically poor which has cost me something near 12 wins. Flip those losses to wins and I have a record of 119-63, that's far more notable and will be my goal for next year.

Strategy

Not much I want to talk about here other than my strategy for starting players in the post-season.

I don't change much when it comes down to it but I spend even less time trying to get "cut" or creative with my lineups. In most situations I bench risk and start snaps/role. That means players coming off of bad injuries, especially high-ankle sprains or players with very inconsistent production hit the bench for me in favor of players who I know will be on the field as many plays as possible. This means I will be using last-flex plays of under-the-radar such as Donovan Peoples-Jones, Darius Slayton, Adam Thielen, Christian Watson, Zay Jones and Mack Hollins while avoiding shoot-the-moon plays such as Jameson Williams,  Amari Rodgers, Van Jefferson, etc. Some players like Van Jefferson have a role but inconsistency is just too great to play.

When it comes to setting playoff rosters, I want players with snaps/role in my lineup to maximize the chance of one play getting big points. It only takes one 60 yard touchdown reception to make for a decent day. It's all about maximizing the opportunity for points while trying to avoid the low-floor games.

If there's every a week to go chalk with your plays, week one of the playoffs is it.

Good luck out there!