Lineup Advice, Team Tracking & Strategy: Playoffs Edition – Week 16

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Week 16

Semi-finals in most leagues. Good luck to you!

Week 15 was kind of a tough week, at least for me. But when looking back at the lineup advice, there were a couple of lay-downs which were painful. Shout out to Zonovan Knight and D'Onta Foreman for making me play the fool. Unfortunately it happened in the playoffs, but that's been the case with running backs this year. The running back position has been a minefield all year long. Rhamondre Stevenson was a back I was universally sitting due to injury and the Belichick quotient, the fact that the old codger of a coach is always a mystery when it comes to his backfield rotation, especially where injury is concerned. AJ Dillon finally did something but, of course, how do you start him when he's done next to nothing all year?

If not for the Foreman, Knight and, to a lesser degree, Juwan Johnson, it was a good week of advice. But Foreman and Knight factored often leaving a bad taste in my mouth.

Looking forward, we've got some tough positional games/matchups to navigate.

JAX vs. NYJ - Tough for the trending Jaguars who are starting to look like a future offensive powerhouse. There's a lot of risk in this matchup for players such as Christian Kirk and Trevor Lawrence. Zay Jones may end up being the late-season fantasy MVP.

PHI vs DAL -  An issue for both sides, especially those relying on Hurts and Prescott, especially Prescott who doesn't possess Hurts' rushing ability.

BUF vs CHI - Fields sits at the helm of the NFL's worst passing attack but he's in the QB7 range overall in fantasy because he's rushed for 1,000 yards. That can't continue and BUF is just the defense to put an end to the trend. I fear for Fields' long term health.

Other than that, it looks like all systems go for most fantasy starters but I'll be going down the rabbit hole more on the matchups tomorrow.

Team Tracking

Well, this was .... a week. Almost historic for me, and not in a good way. I had six playoff games for those teams not getting a first-round bye, including two teams which were set to have a bye until week 14's MNF game. In the end I was forced to play in two more playoff games.

As Sunday came to a close, I was staring down the barrel of going 0-6. Looking at my matchups, there wasn't much I could have done. For my leagues which still use defensive teams, I had done a fair amount of research and ultimately went all in on the Packers against the Rams. Due to that matchup, I had four games which were still in play heading into MNF, two with the Packers defense and two needing a big game from Aaron Jones. So I took my 0-6 Sunday standing into Monday night!

How did I do, let's review:

Dynasty 4 (11-3)

Bye in week 15.

Dynasty 6 (9-5)

This team was due to get a bye but was edged out late in the previous week, meaning I had to play in 15, not something I was looking forward to given injuries and matchups. Down by 5.1 heading into the Packers game needing 6 from Packers' defense.  Was still down by one until a late Mayfield sack and interception, giving me a two-point victory. My previous defense playing would have resulted in a loss.

Dynasty 7 (8-6)

Similar to Dynasty 6 above, team was down 6 with only the Packers defense remaining. Same situation, same outcome and I was victorious by a mere 1.15 points. If I had started my previous defense, would have lost handily.

Dynasty 9 (9-5)

Lost my bye due to two points in week 14 which means I had to play in the first round. Given my team's issues, I was not optimistic and my assessment proved correct. This team was my biggest surprise this year after a dismal 2021 due to injuries. And I was hit again in 2022. I had all but written it off but somehow kept winning and almost secured the bye.

SUL9 (10-4)

Bye in week 15.

SUL10 (8-6)

Lost but little I could have done. A swap to Donovan Peoples-Jones from Bam Knight would have yielded a 3 point loss but it was not to be. Too bad too because I thought this team had a chance to repeat from its championship run in '22.

Safeleagues 189 (9-5)

I call this team my "snake bit" team for a reason. Exceptionally strong team top to bottom and, quite honestly, the strongest team in the league. But, once again, I'm out of the playoffs after a 2.9 point loss. Not much I could have done unless I started Trevor Lawrence over Dak Prescott. Losing Deebo Samuel to injury probably cost this team a chance to move on.

RTS SF1 (SF, 10-4)

First-year league and a strong looking team. But, in the end, lost by 7. Aaron Jones gave it a good go but needed another touchdown at least. This one stings a bit as I was going to start Peoples-Jones over Miles Sanders due to recent trend but took the guaranteed touches in a game I thought Sanders would carry a heavy load due to script. That swap would given me the narrow victory. My quarterback tandem of Justin Herbert and Daniel Jones were badly outscored by a score of 25.35 to 52.70 (Mahomes/Goff).

So what could have been a ridiculously bad 0-6 playoff run was a moderately bad 2-4. And quite frankly, I'm pretty fortunate that the Packers stepped up against the Rams to allow me to sneak past my opponents.  That leaves me with four teams still alive and in looking at the matchups, getting two through to the championship game would be fortunate. I have some tough teams as opponents this week.

So, if all four teams reach the playoffs, that will be a 30.76% championship game percentage, lower than last year's 40% and half of my unrealistic stretch goal of 60% in 2022. But the likelihood of sending all four to the big game is very low this year.

Strategy

Don't have much for you this week. In any of my remaining games, I'll be starting playable trends and favoring year-long performance over hot-trends. These plays will favor players like Donovan Peoples-Jones, who has been a consistent WR3 performer over hot players like Christian Watson who finally came back to earth. Additionally, I'm not looking to D'Onta Foreman again as the team seems to be favoring Hubbard's versatility a bit more, leaving Foreman as a touchdown dependent option on a poor team. Not a play I'm willing to make again with a trip to the championship on the line.

My biggest issue is with a quarterback like Dak Prescott, he just always seems to underperform while lower options like Trevor Lawrence and even Justin Fields continue to come on. I also have an issue with Miles Sanders, a back who has been consistently good but whose main role near the goal line is to help push Jalen Hurts into the end zone from behind on sneaks, which opponents have not been able to stop.

I'll be starting players like Diontae Johnson, a popular fade target in recent weeks who is finally starting to show up, probably due to Mitch Trubisky.

Looking forward to your questions this week. Good luck!